We’re down to the last third of the year and recently the question was posed to me for the first time this year,
“Do you have any early Oscar ideas?”
Welcome to the Fall Movie Season, where the studios try to pretend as if the previous eight months of the season weren’t just about making money and throw out their prestige pictures with aspirations of golden statuettes.
With the exception of the outliers like Seabiscuit and Gladiator from years past, this is the season where Oscar nominations are born.
So, I’ve gone through the recent Entertainment Weekly’s Fall Movie Preview and picked out the biggest films of the season and I’m asking everyone to make a few picks. A couple acting nominations, a couple directing nominations, maybe a documentary or two…
But everyone has to pick their 5 Best Picture Candidates. Then we can see who came the closest when the nominations are announced this coming January.
So here are the Fall movie titles. If you think a movie from earlier in the year will garner a nomination, feel free to include it –
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Road
Burn After Reading
The Soloist
Body of Lies
Miracle at St. Anna
Changeling
Ashes of Time Redux
Milk
Gran Torino
Pride and Glory
The Brothers Bloom
Zack and Miri Make a Porno
Quantam of Solace
Revolutionary Road
Nick & Norah's Infinite Playlist
Australia
W.
The Lucky Ones
Synecdoche, New York
Seven Pounds
Appaloosa
Religulous
Blindness
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Marley & Me
The Spirit
Four Christmases
Defiance
What Just Happened
The Duchess
The Day the Earth Stood Still
Lakeview Terrace
Elite Squad
Rachel Getting Married
The Women
Yes Man
Happy-Go-Lucky
Righteous Kill
RocknRolla
Eagle Eye
Role Models
The Secret Life of Bees
Bedtime Stories
How to Lose Friends & Alienate People
Ghost Town
Sex Drive
My Best Friend's Girl
An American Carol
City of Ember
The Express
Soul Men
Nights in Rodanthe
Choke
The Burning Plain*
Che*
The Wrestler*
*no set 2008 release date
4 comments:
Picking potential Best Picture candidates from the front page, you’ve got to turn to the accomplished directors. More often than not it’s the directors that have established themselves as top tier talent that are recognized with year end BP nominations. There’s occasionally one film from a first time director (Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton last year, Bennett Miller for Capote a couple years back) that earns a nomination, but when making predictions you’ve got to go for who’s respected right now… not who’s going to make a name for themselves.
So that said, I think it’s David Fincher’s year. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is the first time this extraordinarily talented filmmaker has made a film even marginally resembling an “Oscar” movie. Usually content to make bleak, browbeating films that the Academy shrugs off without a second thought (where were Zodiac’s nominations last year?), this time Fincher has aligned himself with a script from F. Scott Fitzgerald and a story that resembles a love story on an epic scope that seems to appeal to the Academy’s members. For my money, it’s his to lose heading into the Fall movie season… it just depends on whether the story steers clear of the dark territory that has doomed Fincher’s previous films’ chances.
Next, I gotta go with Milk. The newest film from director Gus Van Sant, and also the first film he’s cobbled together since Finding Forrester in 2000 that resembles an actual “film” film. He’s entertained the art house crowd, myself included, with tragic, experimental tales ranging from Gerry to Paranoid Park earlier this year. But this is the first one that boasts a plot, a big cast, and any sort of expectations. I think he exceeds them.
My third choice goes to a filmmaker who has only made two previous films, both very well done period pieces. Considering I generally can’t stand period pieces, I’m dying to see what director Joe Wright can do in a contemporary setting with The Soloist. We have the tortured artist here, played by Jamie Foxx, and the intrigued newspaperman by Robert Downey, Jr. But with those two actors, I would expect them to find new wrinkles to their characters, the genre, and potentially open the floodgates for Awards nominations. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think so.
At this point I don’t know enough about Gran Torino to feel safe picking it as an Awards contender and The Changeling received positive, but not overwhelmingly positive reviews coming out of Cannes so, unfortunately, I don’t think one of my favorite filmmakers, Clint Eastwood, will be represented in the Best Picture race this year. I’d also like to see The Road get a nomination, continuing Cormac McCarthy’s run from last year’s No Country for Old Men. But the apocalyptic storyline doesn’t seemed destined for Awards consideration (Children of Men anyone?), so McCarthy’s novel might have to stick to writing noms contention.
That leaves me battling between four choices as my last two nominees, none of which I feel particularly strong about. So I’m at least going to pick the one I’m most excited about, Miracle at St. Anna as my fourth choice. Spike Lee is a director who has not been recognized by the Academy as of yet. It’s a World War II movie with a different spin and it sounds like there are definite religious overtones to it. I, for one, wonder what Spike will come up with. Maybe the Academy does too.
The last three of my possibilities come from different genre spheres, a political drama from Ron Howard in Frost/Nixon, a suburban drama from Sam Mendes, reuniting his wife Kate Winslet with Leonardo DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road and the one I’m ultimately choosing Australia. Hell, Luhrmann envisioned it as an Australian epic. All of these seem like potential nominees, but the first two seem more acting oriented. They’ll get noms in other categories, and Luhrmann’s bluster and bravado will eke out the 5th spot.
Well there are a lot of films on here that i know nothing about yet, but I'm always game for a...well game.
I'd like to pick something more left field and just say Zach and Miri or Choke, but as much as I would like to see those get recognized, I don't think that will happen.
No film has me more excited nor do I think any film will explore such a wide range of topics, values, morals as The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Dammit this better turn out to be the second coming or I will be wholly disappointed. This thing deserves Best Picture consideration based purely on its fantastic trailer which has been bested only by Watchmen for best trailer this year. It's a great concept that has an amazing director behind it, so I doubt I will be disappointed.
Got Milk! I hope to God I don't have to hear too many of those stupid jokes during the Oscars because I think Milk is a sure thing too. Van Sant has great ideas and execution at times, but he needs something truly important to him I think in order to pack as much a wallop again as he has done in the past. Here he tells the story of Harvey Milk, the first openly gay politician elected into office. Van Sant is gay himself, and I think this is perhaps a personal story he would like to tel and I think it will payoff.
Those are the only too sure things at this moment. But I will take a guess as to whom the others will be.
I do think that Dark Knight and Wall E have a good shot. Unfortunately for Wall E, it came before the Dark Knight. So I'll go out on a limb and say Dark Knight will get a Best Pic nod, but I don't think it will win.
I'm not really interested in Australia, so I'm not sold it will get as much notoriety as many think it will. I think Jackman may pull off a nom and probably Kidman, but I just don't see anything truly "Baz-like" about it to make it stand out. My other pick will have to go to Frost/Nixon. I've heard nothing, but fantastic things about Langella and the play, so I think unless Howard pulls a Da Vinci, I think this will get notice too in more of that Michael Clayton/Good Night and Good Luck spot.
My final pick I think will have to go to...uh I don't know. I don't think people like Spike Lee enough give him any notice anymore. The film looks decent, but his cast is boring and he doesn't look to be doing anything different. I kinda hope Eastwood asks him where all the white soldiers are. I just don't think his passion is behind it like Do the Right Thing! was. I could be wrong, but I'll stick with it for now.
I would love Mickey Rourke and The Wrestler to get some attention. Aronofsky is among my favorite directors and Rourke looks pitch perfect in this role. Haven't seen anything from it and god knows when we will see it, but I can't wait.
Che...would be a contender if it wasn't flipping over four hours long. Dammit Soderbergh, ever hear of an editor. Bloated doesn't mean epic.
Synedoche, NY,.. god knows I'm rooting for this, but initial reviews haven't been great. Still excited, but I think it will be more divisive than Eternal Sunshine was.
Burn After Reading will probably make many top 10 lists, but they just won last year and for a film that will probably be deemed better than this one. This looks like an absolute blast though and feels more like a Coen film than No Country did.
Body of Lies,..can anyone decipher what is going on in that trailer? Got me.
The Road..ditto the apocalypse sentiment that Mulligan had. But go Viggo.
So I guess that essentially leaves Soloist. I think Downey has had too big of a year for them to ignore it and he has to get something. This is probably he best shot and when Foxx gets it right, he gets it right. I know little about it and haven't seen anything, so the pedigree is enough at this point.
1. Ben Button
2. Milk
3. Dark Knight
4. Frost/Nixon
5. Soloist
Those are my picks for know. Got I hope Fincher gets this.
Holy crap I'm posting...Just to let everyone know, I do read this thing all the time, but am rarely in the mindset to actually post. Today, I am ready to type though.
So, early Best Picture choices...hmm...
I'm in agreement with every film geek of able mind out there...David Fincher's The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is the most exciting film being released between now and the end of the year. I hope that he gets some sort of recognition for this (nothing for Zodiac, really?). The trailer is astounding, and Fincher is long overdue for some serious accolades.
Next, I'm going to go with Revolutionary Road. It may not have much of a chance, because it is supposedly rather brutal. But Sam Mendes, with Leo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, has got to have some sort of a shot. Early reviews have been really good, so I'm looking forward to an emotionally painful reunion between these two powerhouse performers.
Third, we'll go with Milk. Big stars. Big director. Big subject. All of which is Oscar bait. Looks promising, so let's hope this is one of Van Sant's better efforts.
Fourth, Dark Knight. Its far too big, and far too big not to get a nomination. I'm not completely sure if I agree with it being nominated, but I almost certain it will.
My last one will go to Wall-E. Its easily my favorite of the year, and I think its time for the academy to give animated films a little more credit. This is easily one of the best this year will have to offer, and deserves to be nominated along side the others.
Interesting to see the films we all had on our lists, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Milk. Safe to say, I think anything less than Best Picture nominations will be a disappointment for these with such a high pedigree of filmmakers behind them.
You both chose The Dark Knight, which I think will garner some nominations for special effects, makeup and Heath Ledger… but I’m not sold the Academy will recognize a 2 and ½ hour comic book film. It’s still my favorite film to date this year, but even though the Academy has been going darker in recent years (The Departed, No Country for Old Men), somehow I don’t think we’re quite there yet for The Dark Knight.
Now, Wall-E is one I could definitely see garnering a nomination. I just forgot it or I would have definitely listed it as a possibility. Universally praised, a fantastic film, and could be the icebreaker that Pixar wanted The Incredibles to be for a BP nom. Time will tell.
And judging by the mixed reactions to Miracle at St. Anna already trickling in, it looks like one of my choices has already been submarined. Damn.
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